Sixty-five years after independence, Nigeria stands as damning proof that Western-style democracy, when grafted onto a society stripped of strong institutions, has become an expensive vehicle for corruption and organised state failure. Our democracy has not produced development. It has produced a political class united solely by its genius for looting public funds. The numbers speak for themselves.
When the U.S.-Israel coalition launched its assault on Iran in late February 2026 and Iran retaliated by blockading the Strait of Hormuz — disrupting approximately 20 percent of global oil supplies — the International Energy Agency declared it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude surged more than 50 percent above its January price by mid-April, and analysts now forecast it to average $86 a barrel across 2026. The world desperately needed oil. Prices were screaming. The opportunity was historic.
Nigeria answered with silence. In January and February 2026 alone, Nigeria recorded a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of 16.6 million barrels against its own government budget targets. In January, output averaged 1.63 million barrels per day — roughly 210,000 barrels per day below target. In February, production collapsed further to approximately 1.48 million barrels per day, a shortfall of around 360,000 barrels per day. One analysis estimated that Nigeria forfeited approximately $1.08 billion in potential crude oil revenue between January 2025 and January 2026 alone due to its inability to produce at or above its OPEC allocation. A separate assessment found that the country lost 93.74 million barrels in the first eight months of 2025, translating to approximately $6.85 billion in revenue at prevailing prices.
Not because the world did not need the oil. Because our crippled, corruption-saturated petroleum sector was physically incapable of responding. The causes are well documented: pipeline vandalism and crude theft in the Niger Delta, ageing infrastructure requiring constant maintenance, chronic delays in upstream project execution due to funding constraints and regulatory chaos, and community disputes that shut down operations at will. Meanwhile, the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery — Africa’s largest — has been battling acute crude shortages, receiving far below its required volumes from domestic sources despite Nigeria’s position as the continent’s largest crude oil producer. We export the crude and cannot feed our own refinery. This is the paradox of Nigerian governance in a single sentence.
We must now face reality. Nigeria requires a new system of government — a competent technocracy led by qualified, already-wealthy Nigerians who have no personal incentive to steal. We must outsource critical functions that we have repeatedly proven incapable of managing ourselves.
Our oil revenue accounts should be placed under the management of a reputable international hedge fund — a firm with strict fiduciary duty, full transparency obligations, and accountability to an independent board. Not the Central Bank of Nigeria. Not the NNPC. An entity structurally insulated from political interference. The Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global manages over $1.7 trillion in sovereign oil wealth on behalf of Norwegian citizens. Nigeria, with far greater reserves, has produced nothing remotely comparable because every naira that enters our treasury becomes a target.
The NNPC itself must be placed under professional foreign management — on a fixed contractual term, with measurable performance benchmarks and zero tolerance for the opacity that has defined it for decades. We can begin with a management contract model similar to what several Gulf states used in their early development phases. The talent exists. The will does not — because transparency ends the feeding.
And in the northern states, where the federal government has effectively ceded territory to armed groups — Boko Haram, ISWAP, bandits operating with near-military sophistication — security must be outsourced to capable international private military contractors who can actually eliminate the threat. The Nigerian military has been trying and failing for fifteen years. The civilian death toll runs into the hundreds of thousands. At some point, continued failure is no longer a strategy. It is a choice. These proposals will shock the comfortable. But what should shock us far more is sixty-five years of democratic performance that has produced mass poverty, a collapsed currency, a broken power grid, a looted treasury, and a petroleum sector that cannot capitalise on the greatest oil price surge in a generation.
A nation that cannot secure its own territory, cannot account for its own revenue, and cannot manage its most important industry has forfeited the right to govern itself by elections alone. Elections without institutions are not democracy. They are a quarterly auction of the state.
Nigeria does not need more democracy. Nigeria needs results. And if our political class cannot or will not produce them, then we must have the courage — and the honesty — to bring in those who can.
Kio Amachree is the President, Worldview International
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